Keep the wheels turning
17 March 2020
Employers bracing for employee shortages and interruptions can be developing pools of contingent labor now to minimise disruption, and keep the wheels of the economy turning.
Notwithstanding increasing limitations on movements and assembly of people, folks adapting to this new lifestyle have needs ranging from essential to discretionary.
Without knowing the duration or extent of disruption, employers are concerned about maintaining services where there is demand, and are starting to plan for significant employee absences. Scenario planning suggests 40% plus normal capacity could be absent at any given time in the coming weeks, due to illness, self-isolation, social distancing, caring for dependants, transport disruption, etc. While no one wants this scenario to develop, if providers allow this pressure on capacity to cascade negatively the societal and economic consequences could be dire.
While essential services come under capacity pressure, other segments are experiencing surpluses based on restrictions necessarily imposed by government, as well as people's personal choices to both socially distance themselves as well as conserve cash. We have identified three broad categories of employment based on "citizen needs":
"essentials of life" with about half of employees (including public and private sector)
"social continuity" with about 30%, and
"discretionary/banned" with about 20% of employment
It is these latter two segments that are and will experience excess capacity in the coming weeks:
Developing labor pools (including all skill levels and qualifications available as surplus and in need) would likely need to take place on a local level, in order to avoid unnecessary travel and accommodation for exposure and costs, however there will likely be circumstances where needs and scarcity will warrant the risk mitigation required. So local government and chambers of commerce have a lead role, along with businesses that have substantial managerial and administrative resources available.
The first example I’m aware of is a refuse collection company recruiting idled forestry workers for absenteeism relief - choice!
The potential process as outlined below begins with individuals putting themselves forward for consideration. This can be encouraged via government and private sector incentives, however no one should be compelled to place themselves in harm's way.
A key element of workplace preparation is risk analysis, based on prevailing arrangements but considering the situation of contingent labor new to the workplace. OSHA provides excellent guidance on workplace arrangements by exposure level, including the application of controls:
engineering (isolating employees from work- related hazards)
administrative (require action by the worker or employer, including safe work practices)
personal protective equipment (PPE)
Employers can align their workplace preparation and training by risk level:
The benefits to our economies could be enormous in the current circumstances if forward and courageous thinking takes hold in order to bridge key capacity gaps. As importantly those workers idled through no fault of their own may find renewed purpose by being productively involved in their community.
“Keep the wheels turning!”
Sources:
https://www.epi.org/blog/what-to-watch-on-jobs-day-expected-future-impact-of-covid-19/
https://www.osha.gov/Publications/OSHA3990.pdf
https://www.ilo.org/legacy/english/dialogue/ifpdial/llg/ch5/ex4.htm